Financial Wisdom From Three Wise Men

by Hans Wagner

Some of us are more disciplined than others. Shortly after we are born, we start to learn the rules of life. Some of these rules we had to learn the hard way, through trial and error. Others we learned from our parents. Learning from others in this way is often easier, however, we seem to do a better job of remembering the lessons we learn the hard way. As investors, we have a choice. We can learn the hard way and hope that we'll survive our lessons and not run out of money, or we can learn from the following three wise men.

Three wise men - Warren Buffett, Dennis Gartmen and Puggy Pearson - found very different methods to achieve financial success, but they all share a common trait - their success came by following a strict set of rules. In this article we'll show you nine rules that three wise investors live by.

The World’s Greatest Investor
Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," is considered by many to be the greatest investor ever. He is also known for giving much of his $40 billion fortune to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which is dedicated to bringing innovations in health and learning. Buffett is primarily a value investor that closely follows Benjamin Graham's investing philosophy after having worked at Graham's firm, Graham-Newman. (To read more about Buffett, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)

Buffett has several excellent investing rules. You can read about many of them in his company's (Berkshire Hathaway) annual reports, which are an excellent source of investing knowledge.

Here are three of Buffett's rules:

1. Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
   If you lose money on an investment, it will take a much greater return to just break even, let alone make additional money. Minimize your losses by finding quality companies that are temporarily selling at discounted prices. Then follow good capital management principles and maintain your trailing stops. Also, sitting on a losing trade uses up time, money and mental capital. If you find yourself in this situation, it is time to move on.
   
2. The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.
   The best returns come from those who wait for the best opportunity to show itself before making a commitment. Those who chase the current hot stock usually end up losing more than they gain. Remain active in your analysis, look for quality companies at discounted prices and be patient waiting for them to reach their discounted price before buying.
3. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.
   You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against it. Independent thinking and having confidence in what you believe is much more important than being the smartest person in the market. Most of the time, the best opportunities are found when everyone else has given up on the stock market. Over-confidence and emotion are the enemies of a high quality portfolio.

The Great Trader Gartman
In the October 1989 issue of Futures magazine, Dennis Gartman published 15 simple rules for trading. He is a successful trader who has experienced the gamut of trading from winning big to almost losing everything. Currently, he publishes The Gartman Letter, a daily publication for experienced investors and institutions.

Here are three of Gartman's best rules:

1. There is never one cockroach.
   When you encounter a problem due to management malfeasance, expect many more to follow. Bad news often begets bad news. Should you encounter any hint of this kind of problem, avoid the stock and sell any shares you currently own. (For related reading, see Evaluating A Company's Management, Get Tough On Management Puff and Putting Management Under The Microscope.)
   
2. In a bull market only be long. In a bear market only be short.
   Approximately 60% of a stock's move is based on the overall move of the market, so go with the trend when investing or trading. As the saying goes, "The trend is your friend."
   
3. Don't make a trade until the fundamentals and technicals agree.
   Fundamentals help to find quality companies that are selling at discounted prices. Technical analysis helps to determine when to buy, the exit target and where to set the trailing stop. A variation of this is to think like a fundamentalist and trade like a technician. When you understand the fundamental reasons that are driving the stock and the technicals confirm the fundamentals, then you can make the trade. (For more insight, see Fundamental Analysis For Traders and What Can Traders Learn From Investors?)

The Gambler
The wisdom of the late two-time champion world poker player Puggy Pearson offers our last set of rules to follow. "Only three things to gamblin'," Puggy once said, "knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management and knowing yourself." Well, those rules apply to investors too.

Here are Pearson's all-encompassing rules:

1. Knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition
   Understanding the odds of drawing a winning hand is essential to poker. The 60/40 bets are those that offer the best chance of winning given all the options available. If you only play hands that have these odds or better, the statistics are on your side.
   
   As investors, we should strive to put the odds in our favor with every trade. Finding the best 60/40 opportunities takes time and research, as there are many ways to find good candidates. These can be identified through individual stock selection, top-down or bottom-up approaches, technical or fundamental analysis, value-based pricing, growth-oriented, sector-leaning or whatever approach works best for a particular investor. The point is that investors must be constantly working toward finding and recognizing opportunities as they present themselves. Once you have been dealt the right cards, it's time to take the next step.
   
2. Money Management
   Managing money is an ongoing process. The first tenet is to minimize losses on each opportunity. Fortunately, investors do not have to ante up to play, as in poker, though investors must work hard to find good opportunities. Once you have a good hand, it is time to decide how much money to commit to the opportunity.
   
   While much is written on this topic, let's keep it simple. Basically it is a risk-reward decision. The more money you commit, the greater the possible reward and the higher the risk of losing some of that money. However, if you do not play, then you cannot win. (For more on this, see Determining Risk And The Risk Pyramid.)
   
   Basically, when the best opportunities present themselves, it is usually wise to make a significant commitment. For good (but not great) opportunities, committing smaller amounts makes sense as the potential reward is less. As in poker, most of an investor's money is made in small increments with the occasional big win coming along every once in a while. This requires that an investor evaluate each opportunity compared to others that have shown themselves in the past. Experience is an excellent teacher. Finally, investors can use a stop-loss strategy to mitigate greater losses should their assessment of the opportunity prove to be wrong. Too bad gamblers don't have such a tool! (To read more, see The Stop-Loss Order - Make Sure You Use It.)
   
3. Knowing Yourself
   The last gambling rule, knowing yourself, means doing everything you can to stick to your discipline. Everyone wants to get on with it to make the next trade, but if that opportunity does not fit within your measure of a good 60/40 opportunity, then you must force yourself to pass. While you will miss some good gains, this will also save you from some hefty losses. Following your discipline is essential for success as a gambler as well as an investor. You must be extraordinarily patient in your search for the right opportunities and then aggressively go after the best ones.

Conclusion
Each of these three wise men excels by following his rules. In this way, they have succeeded where many others have failed. While we might not be as wise as these three men, we can learn from the best.

Ten Worst Performers of 2008

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch

Recently, I listed 2008's 10 best performers, as tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. ( See Dec. 17 column). I list 2008's 10 worst performers at the end of this column.

Worst really means worst in 2008. The bottom performer, Charlie Buck's Win Before You Buy, is down an appalling 82.0%, and there are several close contenders.

Simple arithmetic suggests these letters will never climb out of the performance hole they've fallen into. But, paradoxically, they could still be worth watching in the years to come.

I've remarked before on an oddity whereby letters often bounce back and forth between successive year's top and bottom ten. It happened again this year: The Linde Equity Report, No. 4 in 2007, is in the bottom 10 in 2008, down 63.6%.

Of course, it may not always be wise to bet on this rebound being sustained.

To paraphrase Caesar's "Gallic Wars," this year's Terrible 10 can be divided into three parts.

First are letters that have done appallingly this year -- and have also done appallingly over the longer term. In this category, I'd put Linde, Equities Special Situations (down 74.3%), and Buck's Win before You Buy.

Then there are letters that have done appallingly this year but have done well, even been top performers, in the past.

There's some reason to hope they might rebound.

In this category: BI Research, down negative 56.3% ( See Aug. 17, 2006, column); Louis Navellier's Emerging Growth, down 57.6% ( See Jan. 17 column); Medical Technology Stock Letter, down 61.2% ( See Aug. 20 column -- Ouch!); and Oberweis Report, down 63.4% ( See March 27, 2006, column).

Then there are the hard asset/gold bug letters, which have done appallingly in 2008 but brilliantly as recently as last year: Ruff Times, down 65.2%; the Dines Letter, down 72.1%; and the International Harry Schultz Letter, down 75.6%.

In varying degrees, these letters have a long-run worldview that they regard as delayed rather than discredited. But it's still an interesting question why they didn't trade.

One of this year's top performers, Investment Models' James Rohrbach, recently wrote in MarketWatch that "buy and hold is dead." See Rohrbach's commentary.

Maybe, although it sounds like the sort of thing people say at the bottom of bear markets.

It is certainly true that letters in my Category Two (appalling this year, but reason to hope if you look further back) tend to eschew market timing and remain fully invested, often in volatile stocks.

This was a bad year to be fully invested. But there can be dramatic rebounds in bear markets. If that happens, these letters could see a radical reversal of fortune.

It may not repair their Hulbert Financial Digest records. But if you are just getting involved with them now, who cares.

The Terrible Ten:

(Data is over the year to date through Nov. 31. Remember, the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 is down 38.68% over that period.)

BI Research -56.3%

Louis Navellier's Emerging Growth -57.6%

Medical Technology Stock Letter -61.2%

Oberweis Report -63.4%

Linde Equity Report -63.6%

Ruff Times -65.2%

Dines Letter -72.1%

Equities Special Situations -74.3%

International Harry Schultz Letter -75.6%

Charlie Buck's Win Before You Buy -82.0%

The Characteristics Of A Successful Company

by Michael Schmidt,CFA

It is often debated whether a commonly perceived "good" company, as defined by characteristics, such as competitive advantage, above-average management and market leadership, is also a good company to invest in. While these characteristics of a good company can point toward a good investment, this article will explain how to evaluate the company's financial characteristics to make a final decision. (For further reading on the other characteristics, see 3 Secrets Of Successful Companies.)

Background
The world of stock picking has evolved. What was once the duty of traditional stock analysts has become an internet phenomenon: stocks are now analyzed by all kinds of people using all kinds of methods. Furthermore, the speed at which information now travels around the world has led to increased volatility in stock prices and changes in the way that stocks are evaluated, at least in the short-term. In addition, the advent of self-directed 401(k)s, IRAs and investment accounts has empowered individual investors to get more involved in the selection of stocks to buy. (Read House Your Retirement With Self-Directed Real Estate IRAs for more on this investment vehicle.)

But while the short-term process may have changed, the characteristics of a good company to buy stock in have not. Earnings, return on equity (ROE) and their relative value compared to other companies are timeless indicators of companies that might be good investments.

Earnings
Earnings are essential for a stock to be considered a good investment. Without earnings, it is difficult to evaluate what a company is worth, except for its book value. While current earnings may have been overlooked during the internet stock boom, investors, whether they knew it or not, were buying stocks in companies that were expected to have earnings in the future. (Read more about the dotcom boom and other crazes that went wrong in Crashes: What Are Crashes And Bubbles?)

Earnings can be evaluated in any number of ways, but three of the most prominent metrics are:

• Growth
• Stability
• Quality

Earnings Growth
Earnings growth is usually described as a percentage in periods like year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter and month-over-month. The basic premise of earnings growth is that the current reported earnings should exceed the previous reported earnings. While some may say that this is backward-looking and that future earnings are more important, this metric establishes a pattern that can be charted and tells a lot about the company's historic ability to grow earnings. (Read about how earnings can be linked to future growth in PEG Ratio Nails Down Value Stocks.)

While the pattern of growth is important, like all other valuation tools the relative relationship of the growth rate matters as well. For example, if a company's long-term earnings growth rate is 5% and the overall market averages 7%, the company's number is not that impressive. On the flip side, an earnings growth rate of 7% when the market averages 5% establishes a pattern of growing earnings faster than the market. This measure on its own is only a start, though – the company should then be compared to its industry and sector peers. (For related reading, see Five Tricks Companies Use During Earnings Season.)

Earnings Stability
Earnings stability is a measure of how consistently those earnings have been generated. Stable earnings growth typically occurs in industries where growth has a more predictable pattern.

• Earnings can grow at a rate similar to revenue growth - this is usually referred to as top-line growth and is more obvious to the casual observer.
• Earnings can also grow because a company is cutting expenses to add to the bottom line.

It is important to verify where the stability is coming from when comparing one company to another. (For further reading, see Revenue Projections Show Profit Potential.)

Earnings Quality
Quality of earnings factors heavily into the evaluation of a company's status. This process is usually left to a professional analyst, but the casual analyst can take a few steps to determine the quality of a company's earnings. For example, if a company is growing its earnings but has declining revenues and increasing costs, you can be guaranteed that this growth is an accounting anomaly and will most likely not last. (Read more in Earnings: Quality Means Everything.)

Return On Equity
Return on equity (ROE) measures the effectiveness of a company's management to turn a profit on the money that its shareholders have entrusted it with. ROE is calculated as follows:

ROE = Net Income / Shareholders' Equity

ROE is the purest form of absolute and relative valuation and can be broken down even further. Like earnings growth, ROE can be compared to the overall market and then to peer groups in sectors and industries. Obviously, in the absence of any earnings, ROE would be negative. To this point, it is also important to examine the company's historical ROE to evaluate its consistency. Just like earnings, consistent ROE can help establish a pattern that a company can consistently deliver to shareholders. (For more on this topic, read Keep Your Eyes On The ROE, Earnings Power Drives Stocks and Profitability Indicator Ratios: Return On Equity.)

Relative Value
While all of these characteristics may lead to a sound investment in a good company, none of the metrics used to value a company should be allowed to stand alone. Don't make the common mistake of overlooking relative comparisons when evaluating whether a company is a good investment. (For further reading, see Peer Comparison Uncovers Undervalued Stocks and Relative Valuation: Don't Get Trapped.)

Where to Find Information
In order to compare information across a broad spectrum, data needs to be gathered. The internet can be a good place to look, but you have to know where to look. Since the majority of information on the internet is free, the debate is whether to use the free information or subscribe to a service. A rule of thumb is the old adage, "You get what you pay for." For example, if you are looking at comparing earnings quality across a market sector, a free website would probably provide just the raw data to compare. While this is a good place to start, it might behoove you to pay for a service that will "scrub" the data or point out the accounting anomalies, enabling a clearer comparison. (What you're getting isn't easy to determine. Find out how to get your money's worth in Investment Services Stump Investors.)

Conclusion
While there are many ways to determine if a company that is widely regarded as "good" is also a good investment, examining earnings and ROE are two of the best ways to draw a conclusion.

• Earnings growth is important, but its consistency and quality need to be evaluated to establish a pattern.
• ROE is one of the most basic valuation tools in an analyst's arsenal, but should only be considered the first step in evaluating a company's ability to return a profit on shareholder's equity.

Finally, all of this consideration will be in vain if you don't compare your findings to a relative base. For some companies, a comparison to the overall market is fine, but most should be compared to their own industries and sectors.

For further reading on stock evaluation, see Pay Attention To The Proxy Statement, Strategies For Quarterly Earnings Season and Spotting Cash Cows.

Securitize

What does it mean?
A pooled group of financial assets that together create a new security, which is then marketed and sold to investors. The value and cash flows of the new security are based off of the underlying value and cash flows of the assets used in the securitization process. Companies will securitize illiquid assets into liquid assets in order to increase their overall liquidity and generate immediate proceeds from their assets.

A company (the originator) begins the securitization process by gathering a series of financial assets, such as accounts receivables (AR). These assets are then sold or transferred to an issuer, or special purpose vehicle (SPV), which is used to manage the assets and legally protect the company from the assets' obligations. The SPV will then sell the securities, which are backed by the assets held in the SPV, to investors. The cash flows generated by the underlying assets are then transferred to the investors who purchased the asset-backed securities (ABS).

The originator will have received some proceeds from the securitization, which can be used for its ongoing operations or other business uses. During the securitization process, the SPV will often get a rating agency to assign the assets a rating based on the ability of the assets to meet the principal and interest payments on the new securities being sold by the SPV. The SPV may also use credit enhancements to lower the risks of the securities being sold off to make them more attractive to investors.

国际游资今又来：抄底还是博反弹？

有迹象显示，一年以前制造中国流动性过剩的游资又回来了。

12月8日，花旗银行发表研究报告称，纵然亚洲大部分的基金仍继续面对赎回，却有大量的资金持续流入中国相关基金，单在过去三星期的新资金已达8.41亿美元，相当于今年来净流入现金近三成。

追踪2,150亿美元离岸亚洲基金的EPFR Global数据显示，上一周，净流入中国内地的资金达到2.099亿美元，而过去四个星期(约11月份)，净流入资金量达到6.89亿美元，占全年净流入30.488亿美元的22.5%。而此前几个月，该机构没有录得净流入的数据。

国际游资U形回归

变化来得太快，事实上从6月份开始人们还正在对游资撤出表示担心。

依 据中国的统计数据，外汇储备减去外商直接投资与贸易顺差之和的不可解释部分，在许多情况下被认为是国外游资。据wind统计今年6月份数据，这部分不可解 释部分自汇改以来，首次录得负值，为-187亿美元。而后，在7、8两个月中，保持在低位运行，分别为27亿美元、32亿美元。9月份，再次表现出较大规 模外资流出迹象，当月不可解释部分骤降至-145.7亿美元。10月份外汇储备数据尚未公布，但也有其他数据显示，10月份外资仍在撤出。

美林的资金流向监测报告显示，11月13日到19日7天内，流入中国的热钱呈现了净流入，但在此前8周(时间主体在9、10月份中)，都是净流出。

汤 森路透向记者提供的QFII A股基金报告显示，10月份QFII在A股的资产规模初值较9月修正后终值72.48 亿美元大幅减少15.01%至61.60亿美元。在所有可得7只已公布资产数据的QFII的A股基金当中，全数QFII的A 股基金资产规模均呈大幅缩减态势，而且平均减幅均高达20%以上；进一步分析其份额增减状况，多数QFII的A股基金亦悉数呈净赎回格局，幅度则在 2%~10%间。

然而，11月开始，境外游资回流，整个过程形成U形之势。

除了花旗和EPFR Global提供的数据，从股市的盘面亦可见，11月份海外资金对流动性好的股票类资产重拾兴趣。11月份，国内机构对市场仍维持谨慎。基金从上海A股中 净流出资金量仍为负值。但一些QFII机构则大量吸货。Topview数据显示，手握瑞银8亿美元QFII额度的瑞银证券营业部11月份净买入23.86 亿元，成为当月下手最狠的营业部，排名资金净流入交易席位头名。

江南证券研究所副所长魏凤春表示，实际上，同过去两年中国资产价格整体上涨不同，眼下从期货到艺术品、从楼市到利息都成下跌态势，唯有中国股市在11月份走出了上涨行情，因此海外游资投资中国股市的可能性较大，当然也不排除债市。

搏击短期还是长期看好

实际上，从时机来看，海外游资重回中国是多方因素综合而成的必然。首先是中国政府刺激经济的政策。

EPFR Global的全球经济分析员Cameron Brandt就认为，资金重回中国是由于中国政府一系列财政刺激政策所引发的。从数据来看，在中国政府11月6日宣布4万亿元经济刺激计划后，外资开始流入。

另 一因素是，国际金融体系趋于稳定，“救驾”资金腾出手来。宏源证券首席经济学家房四海认为，现在已经进入了“去杠杆化”的尾声，表现是美元、欧元稳住了。 在“去杠杆化”前期，世界资金将美国作为避风港，美元迅速升值。美元指数从71最高攀至88.46。但11月21日之后，便开始下跌，至12月8日，下跌 2.58%。与此同时，欧美金融机构性命暂保，海外资金有强烈的觅食冲动。认为，相比世界其他国家，中国仍是最理想的投资目的地。

眼下发达经济体陷入衰退，但在新兴市场中，房四海比较包括外汇储备等14大项的经济指标，中国全部胜出。EPFR Global数据显示，过去四周中，国际资金仍然净流出其他新兴市场国家。

最 后，外资判断人民币仍将升值。尽管12月4日人民币大幅贬值让四方惊呼中国要发动货币战争,但野村证券孙明春给记者的报告认为，人民币仍将升值。他有三个 主要的理由。第一，尽管中国的出口增长正显著受到削弱，但鉴于外国需求暴跌以及一半左右的中国出口都是进口加工装配贸易的事实(抵消了汇率受益)，因此政 策转向人民币对美元贬值不可能起到太多缓解作用。更为根本的是，这与全球重新平衡相悖：中国依然拥有庞大的经常项目和国际收支顺差。预期2009年的经常 项目顺差将达到3900亿美元(相当于GDP的7.0%)。第二，人民币对美元贬值可能会引发中国的贸易伙伴极度负面的反应，从而导致对中国的贸易保护主 义抬头。第三，这有可能会鼓励国内资本的外逃以及延迟外商直接投资的流入，在投资者信心消减之际会推迟国内投资和经济增长的复苏。孙明春认为，2009年 底人民币对美元汇率将会升值到6.55。

摩根大通龚方雄也在接受媒体采访时表示，人民币贬值将引发亚洲其它货币的竞争性贬值，对中国的出口业并没有什么帮助。他并预期,人民币兑美元未来三个月内汇率将在6.8-7.0元的区间内波动，而3-12个月则将会升值约3%。

12月9日，A股走出四根阳线后掉头向下。令人感到不安的是，一些大行在前期摇旗呐喊为股市升温造势后，近期再度表现出担忧。

瑞银12月5日的报告认为，这轮反弹是由利好政策预期推动的反弹。而这种强劲的回升或许终止于中央经济工作会议之后。

或许这只是部分外资的观点。因为在吸引外资进入的三个因素中，至少有两个都是较长期的。