Tuesday, July 6, 2010

New Rules May Affect Every Corner of JPMorgan

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/26/business/26morgan.html

Not since the Great Depression, when the mighty House of Morgan was cleaved in two, have Washington lawmakers rewritten the rules for Wall Street as extensively as they did on Friday.

And perhaps no institution better illustrates what would — and would not — change under this era’s regulatory overhaul than the figurative heir to that great banking dynasty,JPMorgan Chase & Company.

Unlike in the 1930s, the modern House of Morgan will remain standing. So will its cousin, Morgan Stanley, which broke off in 1935 after Congress placed a wall between humdrum commercial banking and riskier investment banking.

The proposed Dodd-Frank Act, worked out early on Friday morning, stops far short of its Depression-era forerunner. But in ways subtle and profound, it has the potential to change the way big banks like JPMorgan do business for years to come.

“It’s a tough bill, and shows the pendulum is swinging toward tighter regulation,” said Frederick Cannon, a banking analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York. “This is going to pressure bank earnings well into the future.”

Of course, all the big banks would feel some effect. Goldman Sachs, for example, would have to rein in its high-rolling traders. Wells Fargo would be subjected to stricter rules on consumer lending. And many large banks would feel the pinch of lower transaction fees on debit cards.

But JPMorgan Chase — forged by a merger of J. P. Morgan & Company with Chase Manhattan in 2001, after the wall came down between commercial and investment banking — and its chief executive, Jamie Dimon, will have to contend with all that and more.

It is the largest player in derivatives, the financial vehicles that have been widely faulted for adding excessive risk to the system. It runs the largest hedge fund in the banking industry, the $21 billon Highbridge Capital unit, and makes billions of dollars’ worth of trades in its own account. And it has a network of retail branches in nearly every corner of the country.

“Given its franchise diversity, JPM is impacted by virtually all of the coming regulatory reforms,” Keith Horowitz, an analyst at Citigroup who follows big banks like JPMorgan, wrote in a research note last week.

One part of the bill would push much of the buying and selling of derivatives onto clearinghouses, forcing banks to put up collateral against each trade. For JPMorgan, that could tie up billions of dollars that would otherwise have gone toward lending or the bank’s own trading.

A smaller portion of trading in derivatives would take place over exchanges, making prices visible to the public and pushing down prices — and profit margins.

Banks would be required to hold more capital in reserve to cover potential trading losses. In some cases they might also be prohibited from using federally insured bank deposits for risky trading. That would hit JPMorgan hard because of its heavy reliance on customer deposits to finance other businesses.

Both changes would take even more money out of play and lower profits.

JPMorgan has already begun dismantling its so-called proprietary trading operation, to comply with new restrictions on banks making speculative bets using their own capital. Analysts say that will force the bank to give up about 2 percent of its revenue.

Under the proposed bill, the bank would also have to be more careful about separating its money from the money it manages for clients in its private equity and hedge fund units, because of a rule to limit the amount banks can invest in such funds. Still, JPMorgan would be able to hang on to Highbridge and several other investment funds because of a special exemption.

It is more difficult to judge how the new rules could affect the Chase side of JPMorgan. A newly created consumer financial protection agency would have broad new authority over financial products like mortgages and credit cards, but it may be years before the agency issues new rules governing such products.

Recent legislation imposing new restrictions on credit cards and overdraft fees has already taken a bite out of bank revenue. The new legislation would add to that drain on revenue by restricting the fees banks can charge for debit card transactions.

In his research note, Mr. Horowitz estimated that the legislation would ultimately reduce the bank’s earnings by as much as 14 percent. That estimate could be cut in half or more because several of the most severe measures in the bill have since been dropped or diluted.

Of course, these assessments do not take into account all the steps that JPMorgan and other banks could take to mitigate the effect of the legislation, like passing on some costs to customers or seeking exemptions from regulatory agencies.

Indeed, JPMorgan could feel a greater effect from deliberations taking place at the United States Federal Reserve and among central bankers in Switzerland. Both sets of regulators are considering a requirement that banks hold additional capital as a cushion against losses. They also may alter the businesses the banks can invest in, or the regions where they can expand.

Indeed, Mr. Dimon has delayed raising the bank’s dividend until international rules are set on capital requirements.

Investors seemed to signal relief that the legislation did not turn out to be as tough as it might have been, sending the share prices of most major banks up about 3 percent on Friday.

Charles Geisst, a professor of finance at Manhattan College and a Wall Street historian, said the bill, which is expected to be signed by President Obama before the Fourth of July holiday, was the most comprehensive financial regulation since the Great Depression because it touched on so many different areas. But he said its effects would not be as fundamental as the impact of changes made in the wake of the Depression.

“It doesn’t go anywhere near,” he said. “It doesn’t change institutional behavior like that did. This is business as usual, with some moderation.”

Thursday, October 29, 2009

深圳试水“勾地制度”

21世纪经济报道 钟良 深圳报道 2009-10-27 22:50:49

1987年12月,深圳市颁布了《深圳经济特区土地管理条例》,敲响了中国土地拍卖“第一槌”。

12年后,在土地制度改革上,深圳再领风骚,将借鉴香港已经实行多年的经验,在国有土地使用权招拍挂出让中实行“勾地制度”。

10月27日,从深圳市规划和国土资源委员会传出该市将试行“勾地制度”的消息。同日,本报从深圳市规划和国土资源委员会证实,目前深圳市 “勾地制度”试行办法的方案已起草完毕,方案草案经该市政府审议通过后有望近期开始推行。

至此,自2006年1月国土资源部起草拟定的《招标拍卖挂牌出让国有土地使用权规范(征求意见稿)》中提出“有条件的地方,可以建立勾地制度”终于落下一子。

起源香港

勾地制度源于香港。

“1998 年以前,香港执行的是定期卖地制度。受亚洲金融危机冲击,香港楼市进入低迷,开发商停止购入土地,地价一泻千里,港府便暂停了卖地转而采用勾地制度,以避 免在市场低潮期土地被贱卖。”香港首讯研究中心研究员梁海明在接受本报采访时表示,“这是勾地在香港实行的最初目的。”

按照流程,香港地政 总署在每年年初进行前期市场调研,了解开发商和房地产市场的土地需求情况后,地政总署根据开发商和市场的需求,结合政府意识制定年度土地出让的勾地表,并 公示勾地表的所有土地。然后开发商对有需求的土地进行勾地,政府提前一个月对成功勾出的土地进行拍卖公示。在土地拍卖中,以勾地者最初勾地价为底价,价高 者得;如无应价者,土地由勾地者以最初勾地价成交。最后土地购入者签署土地使用合同,办理相关手续。

对此,梁海明评价说,这样制定出来的土地供应计划就可以满足市场需求,保证了拍卖的成功率。同时,勾地政策也使开发商有充分的时间进行决策。

“如在拍卖当中该底价不保,政府会收回该块土地,以保证不贱卖资产。”梁海明表示,勾地制度是达到了政府不直接干预市场和通过土地供应管理来宏观调控的目的。

但是勾地制度本身也有其缺点。

“从香港的经验看,勾地制度演化成了‘只许地价涨,不许地价跌’的土地交易制度。在该制度下,政府关门制订勾地表上每块土地的底价,并不时作出调整,整个过程是不透明的。”梁海明认为这为权力寻租提供了良机。

深圳试点

借鉴香港的做法,国土资源部于2006年年初提出了勾地制度的土地出让方式。

按照国土资源部规定,勾地的主要步骤为“对具体宗地有使用意向的单位和个人提出勾地申请,并承诺愿意支付的土地价格;市、县国土资源管理部门认为其承诺可以接受的,以招拍挂方式出让该宗地;申请人应当参加招拍挂且报价不能低于承诺价格”。

对此,业内人士分析认为,这一出让方式在可以预防未来土地出让中出现“贱卖”之外,也可以预防“流拍”现象,从而有利于保障政府收益。

但对招拍挂制度来说,勾地本身并不是一个本质的变化。中央政府出台勾地制度的原因在于:宏观调控后地价低迷;土地流拍现象严重;土地出让秩序混乱,各地政府招商引资对工业用地采取低地价批租方式出让。

中国土地学会的有关人士认为,国内将要实行的政策与香港的“勾地”制度还是存在一定的差异。国土资源部门提出的“土地成交价格申报制度”其实是对土地“招、拍、挂”政策的完善和补充,杜绝土地在“招、拍、挂”政策执行中出现的一些“猫腻”。

近日各地“地王”频现,上海、北京均爆出其前三季度卖地收入超过500亿元,即使对于可用土地资源十分紧张的深圳而言,前三季度卖地收入也超过了80亿元。

上 述人士亦对本报表示,勾地制度的目的在于完善我国目前的土地出让制度,而不仅仅是防止土地流拍这么简单。“勾地制度本质是通过市场询价和成交的土地供应制 度。从其运行机制来看,如果开发商对房市预期不好,就会选择不做出勾地申请。随着土地供应减少,房地产价格相对稳定。反之,开发商看好房市,必会积极勾地 和参与招拍挂,土地与房市供应增加,减少泡沫出现。”

中央财经大学投资系房地产研究所易成栋博士同时提醒,勾地制度的成功运行需要良好的制度环境、廉洁高效的政府、理性的房地产企业,以及市场信息的充分表达、有效的运作程序。

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Maximize Profits With Volatility Stops

Maximize Profits With Volatility Stops

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5 Signs Of A Pending Bull Market

Being able to accurately spot the beginning of a bull market can be one of the most lucrative skills around. This fact alone makes it difficult to achieve, as so many well-educated and experienced investors try to spot the signposts that lead us into traditional bull markets.
Are we in one right now? Opinions vary, but the S&P 500's 45% + rise since March 2009 certainly meets the traditional definition of a 20% rise from a market low. But a better definition of a bull market is an extended period of time when markets are stable with an upward trend. The extended part is key, as it allows all investors the chance to participate without feeling like it's a race to the top.

Let's look at five signs that tend to predict the next bull market. No single one is a surefire tip, but that's just the way Mr. Market likes it: he has a nasty habit of eliminating patterns and keeping investors mystified for as long as possible.

Sign No.1 – Sector and industry leadership changes in the stock market.In the most basic sense, bull markets come when more people want to buy stocks than sell them. Because stocks love to turn bullish before the broad economy picks up, look for a shift in demand to the stocks that benefit first from economic growth. Stocks in sectors like financials, industrials and retail often lag behind in a bear market - nobody wants them.
When a bull is approaching, these sectors often become market leaders. Large institutional investors start piling in, hoping to see the conditions of these companies improve first. So look for leadership to change from defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and consumer staples. When investors start dumping the latter in exchange for financials, industrials and basic materials, it's a good sign that major investors are optimistic about the future. (To learn more, read Industries That Thrive On Recession.)


Sign No.2 - Key economic indicators turn upward.We get a slew of economic indicators all throughout the year, but several have been deemed leading indicators for their ability to foretell future growth in the all-important indicator of gross domestic product (GDP). When GDP is positive and growing, the bull market is already in. So look for a turn in the following key leading indicators:
A rise in industrial production
Several weeks of falling jobless claims
A rise in the Philly Fed Index
Rising durable goods orders
A true bull market should be predicated by all four indicators showing growth, or at least changing direction if they have been falling for several months.


Sign No.3 - The Baltic Dry Index turns sharply upward.The Baltic Dry Index is a specialized measure of the rates paid by producers and shippers of key raw inputs like coal, iron ore and grains. These raw materials are purchased by the ton, so they need to be put in large carrier ships and sent all around the world to the companies that will use them to create energy, steel, food products and other consumer goods.
This index is good to watch because there's a long lead time before growth in shipping leads to higher production of goods by the end users themselves. The Baltic Dry Index is also quite volatile, so higher price action is easy to spot, and may give a clue toward future growth in the economy long before it shows up elsewhere.

Sign No.4 - Money market fund assets drop.When investors are generally skittish, they sell their risky investments (stocks) and move cash into safer ones like bonds and money market funds. In a bear market, money market fund assets will rise and rise, building a bubble of pent-up demand. After all, money market funds may be safe, but they won't earn you a solid return. (For more insight, see Do Money Market Funds Pay?)
The Investment Company Institute publishes weekly figures on the aggregate amount held in all types of funds - stock funds, bond funds and cash funds. Look for a sustained drop in money market fund assets, and a corresponding rise in stock fund assets. This will signal that investors are making their way back into the stock market. The higher that money market assets grow in a bear market, the more gunpowder is available to fire back into the stock market when the bull is back.

Sign No.5 - Stock indexes stabilize.This last sign may sound overly redundant, but don't be fooled by its simplicity. Stock market indexes need to form a bottom that can be recognized by all participants. They then need to form a stable upward trend over weeks and months, rather than a volatile zig-zag that threatens to turn south just as much as north. The more stable the trend of the broad indexes - like the S&P 500 - the more confident investors can become, especially those who have been patiently waiting on the sidelines for obvious signs of safety before dipping their toes back in.


Parting Thoughts
Don't be afraid of missing a few percentage points of stock returns in your efforts to safely and accurately spot a bull market. The best bull markets last for years, not months, and you'll sleep far better at night if you've developed strong convictions about your investment. Leave the whipsaw trading to the iron stomachs of the world, and take your time in evaluating all the signs.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

环比 同比 定基比

环比发展速度是以报告期水平与其前一期水平对比(相邻期间的比较),所得到的动态相对数。表明现象逐期的发展变动程度。如计算一年内各月与前一个月对比,即2月比1月,3月比2月,4月比3月 ……12月比11月,说明逐月的发展程度。

环比计算公式:

环比=


同比发展速度主要是为了消除季节变动的影响,用以说明本期发展水平与去年同期发展水平对比而达到的相对发展速度。如,本期2月比去年2月,本期6月比去年6月等。

同比计算公式:

同比计算公式


定基比发展速度也叫总速度。是报告期水平与某一固定时期水平之比,表明这种现象在较长时期内总的发展速度。如,"九五"期间各年水平都以1995年水平为基期进行对比,一年内各月水平均以上年12月水平为基期进行对比,就是定基发展速度。

三季报堪忧 盖茨买进兖州煤业

黑金的光芒暂时黯淡。

8月23日,兖州煤业(600188.SH)发布中报,上半年实现营业收入96.6亿元,同比减少25.2%;实现归属于母公司股东的净利润19亿元,同比减少49.7%。

公司称,业绩大幅下滑的主要原因是煤价下跌,上半年综合售价515.18元/吨,同比下降146.67元/吨或22.2%。

由于预计煤炭需求减少,销售均价下降,公司对第三季度的预计颇为悲观:预计本集团前三季度实现的归属于母公司股东的净利润将比2008年前三季度减少超过55%。

三季度即将结束的前两个月,公司的悲观预计已经部分变为现实。

8月24日,联合证券发布的兖州动力煤混煤坑口价格走势图显示,目前兖州动力块煤车板含税价格在700元左右,兖州混煤车板含税价格不足600元,均创下年度新低,而去年三季度,相应煤价均处于历史高位,前者更是接近1000元大关。

兖州煤业的业绩之所以牵系于市场煤价,和其采取以现货价格为主的销售策略有关。渤海证券分析师张顺对记者表示,除少量的电合同煤外,兖煤基本都是现货,其比例大约在70%-80%。
2007和2008年煤价大幅上扬之际,这种销售策略曾使兖州煤业大获其利。但作为现货供应商,与合同定价的企业相比,它的业绩对市场环境更敏感,价格下跌之际,所受影响也首当其冲


但对于下半年的价格走势,张顺表示,预计煤炭价格将略好于上半年,主要支撑因素是经济回暖的预期。经济回暖态势下,钢铁行业将向好,而钢铁企业是兖煤的主力客户。

经济回暖带来“价升”的同时,也带来“量增”。尽管上半年,公司生产原煤1728万吨,同比减少80万吨或4.4%,但产量增加在二季度就已有所体现。

中金公司指出,二季度,其重要子公司山西能化和兖煤澳洲的生产明显好转。其中,一季度山西能化受到山西省安全整顿的影响,产量仅10万吨;二季度商品煤产量升至37万吨;随着国际煤炭市场的好转,兖煤澳洲的商品煤产量也从一季度的23万吨上升到40万吨。这使兖州煤业单位成本
显著下降,推动二季度业绩环比回升。

除产能的恢复,兖州煤业对澳企Felix的收购方案如果成功,也将为其带来产能的扩充。上述联合证券报告称,长远看,收购澳矿可使兖州煤业增加10%储量,同时随着Felix产能扩张,也将带来公司产能的提升。

国元证券分析师周海鸥近日表示,兖州煤业上市的1998年,煤炭销售量2028万吨,2002年达3505万吨。但2003年达到3941万吨之后的5年多,一直没有增长,2008年,公司煤炭销售量为3756万吨,公司因此求煤若渴。

除对煤炭资源的渴求催动外,兖州煤业早年就成立的兖煤澳洲子公司,也为公司开展此宗并购提供便利。接近公司高层的人士称,这次收购就是以兖煤澳洲为主体进行,而集团公司则作为强大后盾,为其提供资金等支持,比如为其获取银行贷款提供担保等。

中报显示,BILL & MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION TRUST(盖茨基金)二季度持有200万股,跻身兖州煤业A股十大股东之列,形成对照的是数只内资基金则大规模减仓,其中华宝兴业减仓达896万股。

二季度,兖州煤业几近走平,但从三季度开始加速上涨,7月1日至8月24日,涨幅达18.85%。